One of the great virtues of market forces is that they consistently reward investors who can correctly predict future events. Whenever two people disagree about the plausibility of some event, you can create a financial instrument whereby the one who's right can profit at the expense of the one who's wrong.
The Christian community in America, particularly that section of it aligned with the religious right, commands vast wealth and influence. Although atheists are beginning to make our mark, we're still routinely outspent and outlobbied by the legions of Christian conservatives and their wealthy leaders. It would be greatly beneficial if we could use the power of the market to redirect some of that wealth away from them and to us, where we can put it to better use advancing the cause of science and reason, rather than promoting regressive superstition. But what deal can we offer that they will accept?
I think the religious doctrine of the Rapture is the lever we need. Vast numbers of believers are completely convinced that this event will happen in the near future, and unlike natural catastrophes which might happen by coincidence, it is an unambiguously supernatural aspect of their end-times belief. If, as they say, they have no doubt that it will occur, we can give them a chance to put their money where their mouth is - and to take money away from us if we're the ones who are wrong. What believer could resist that opportunity?
At first glance it might seem impossible to design a financial instrument that centers around the Rapture. After all, if the Christians are right, they won't be around to collect. But I have a solution: I call it Rapture Bonds.
Here's my offer to the believer. Choose a time period - a year, five years, ten years - however long you think is needed to be sure that the Rapture will happen sometime in the chosen interval. Choose a dollar amount. I, the investor, will loan you that amount of money. During the agreed-upon time period, you can use that money in any way you see fit to advance the cause of Christian evangelism: print gospel tracts, pay missionaries' salaries, donate it to televangelists, or whatever else you like.
However, at the end of the chosen period, you must pay me back the entire principal, plus all the interest it's been accumulating during that time. This would be similar to the balloon mortgages that some homeowners take out, which also have a lump-sum payment at the end.
What happens if the Rapture comes during your time interval? Then, obviously, you can't be held liable for the debt. In fact, the bond agreement will have a clause which states that the debt is unrecoverable if the debtor is declared legally dead without there being a body. If you die in the normal fashion, however, your estate is liable for the bond repayment.
In my opinion, this is a great way for Christians - and atheists as well - to really put their respective beliefs to the test. If the Christians are right, then we atheists have given you free money you can use to promote God's kingdom at our expense. If we atheists are right, then the money flows in the opposite direction. The best part is that you can enter into it no matter what you believe. I designed this instrument because I believe it will channel money from Christians to atheists, but a Christian investor could enter into it in the equally confident belief that the opposite will happen. The facts of the world will end up determining who's right, and the money will follow.
I personally don't have the funds to offer this plan on any significant scale. But it might be something for a canny, freethinking investor to consider.
I realize this is kind of a goof but I see three problems with the idea.
First of all what if I take out say $10,000 and name my date Feb 2. 2192. We will both be dead by then so there is no way to recoup loses. Unless you choose to only take loans on say less than 15 year time frame.
Second whats to stop someone from taking a huge loan and just leaving the country. After two years of no contact it's possible for someone (namely a relative in on the scam) to declare them legally dead. For someone with not much to loose they could stand to make a considerable sum by just calling your bluff of forfeiting a claim to the loan should they "disappear bodily".
Thirdly I find it highly unlikely that someone who would make this kind of absurd bet, to the point of actually taking a loan out on the expectation of a coming apocalypse, would have enough money at the time the bond was due to actually pay up. As you recently pointed out with the Millerites people of this persuasion can and will literally throw away all of their possessions and money expecting the end. Afterwords they get bankruptcy and you get squat.
I propose a different scam (lets face it your trying to swindle money out of irrational investors). Lets call it a "Rapture Retirement Plan" They pay you a certain amount of money and name a date at least ten years away. If that date passes by without incident you pay them back their money plus an agreed upon interest. If the date was 20 years out lets say you double their money. This may sound like a losing deal, but if you properly invest the money and incur a minimum of 10% growth a year you will have undoubtedly made more off of their money than they have. Given inflation they may have made little to no money at all depending on how long the bond was.
You can go around to these End Times churches, where these people are ready to throw away their savings at the drop of the spiritual hat, and sell thousands of dollars of these rapture bonds. Unlike normal brokers who have to hunt down leads and make a decent sales pitch, your investors congregate weekly and have already been sold on the idea by their trusted pastor. You just have to cash the check.
Of course considering the complicated nature of such a venture, not to mention the dubious legality, it may just be easier to start a church. From what I've seen churches are the most reliable way to get money out of the truly irrational investor.
Comment #1 by: random guy | December 17, 2008, 10:26 am