twenty years is the pessimistic horizon. favorable trends in court appointments, lower fed and state court rulings (including the california court review of proposition 8), etc., and a national movement of nonconfrontational self outing by prominent gay celebrities, and more importantly by millions of friends, coworkers and neighbors, could make things happen much sooner.

it's important to remember that people strongly opposed to gay marriage hold so for deeply personal, emotional and irrational reasons, and these same people are not stellar at insight and empathy. at bottom is their belief that their faith cannot be wrong and that the almighty creator expects them to rise up against iniquity. if gay marriage became national policy before a sufficient ripening of social opinion and legal foundation, it would be unpleasant for all of us.

Now, I have a bone to pick with you on your second amendment argument. Many of us believe that "a well-regulated militia" simply means a standing army and/or reserve unit. In my opinion it does not provide an individual right to a firearm, only that communities and governments can protect themselves.

Having said that, the common argument is that of a dictator in control of the country, or some such nonsense? However, if such an unfortunate predicament should come to pass my rights would no longer be relevant to my actions.

A careful reading does support this opinion, it is more of a stretch to justify the status quo.

Still, I didn't come here to argue the second amendment with you, just to say kudos on a good post and that I agree with you (on full faith and credit).

The fear is that, if SCOTUS upholds DOMA, it will be much harder for that ruling to be overturned later -- because the Supreme Court doesn't like to overturn itself. Even a good Court that would likely overturn DOMA is less likely to overturn a previous SCOTUS ruling that upholds it.

I bow to the expert. Thanks, Greta and everyone, for helping me understand this.

With the Supreme Court a risky wager for the foreseeable future, it seems to me that the legislative avenue is (marginally) more promising. I believe that Barack Obama, while a candidate, stated his opposition to DOMA and pledged that if elected, he would support its repeal. Personally, I'll be surprised if even a Democratic Congress has the desire or the courage to do that. But human-rights groups have nothing to lose by applying the pressure as early as possible.

Yeah, it's funny how so many excoriated Obama for saying that there is a segment of the population of this country that clings to guns, and then when he gets elected, they go out and prove he was right all along.

The door swings both ways, you know. The People's Republics of Massachusetts, New York, California, Minnesota, et. al., have not only repealed Article IV, but also the 2nd Amendment. None of those states recognize the Texas Concealed Handgun License. The COTUS may not be perfect, but it sure beats what we are living under right now.

Oh, it's worse than that: since no state in the United States allows private possession of nuclear missiles, they're ALL violating the Second Amendment.

(Or would you argue that it's reasonable to draw the line and restrict the keeping and bearing of certain kinds of "arms?")

9th circuit judges grapple with DOMA

9th circuit judges grapple with DOMA

At worst, the Court would rule against us, and DOMA would be judged constitutional. But that would be no worse than the situation that already exists, where DOMA is on the books and we're refraining from challenging it. Is the fear that they would set some more sweeping anti-gay precedent?

The fear is that, if SCOTUS upholds DOMA, it will be much harder for that ruling to be overturned later -- because the Supreme Court doesn't like to overturn itself. Even a good Court that would likely overturn DOMA is less likely to overturn a previous SCOTUS ruling that upholds it.

Yes, right now, we have to wait for a ruling until we have a good Supreme Court that gives a damn about the Constitution. We may have to wait a while. But if we get a bad ruling that goes against us, we'll have to wait even longer.

Of course, as someone who supports gay marriage, I don't expect that every same sex marriage is going to be a model of domestic bliss. But for f-ck's sake, if a same sex couple is going to be the standard bearer for same sex marriage, it would be nice if their own marriage actually endured longer than a typical Hollywood celebrity marriage.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090203/ap_on_re_us/gay_marriage_divorce

Regrettably, this plays right into the hands of religious conservatives opposed to same sex marriage.

http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/feb/09020315.html

I expect I will catch some flak for this, but the sad truth of the matter is that people prominent in advancing civil rights causes have to be something approaching perfect. For example, everyone remembers Rosa Parks, who became famous for refusing to give up her seat to a white person on a bus. What most people don't know is that she was not the first African-American woman arrested for the violation. Several other African-American women had also been arrested for the same thing before Rosa Parks, but the civil rights activists pushing to end segregation on the buses decided not to take their cases because they had issues. If I recall, one of the women had a child out of wedlock. Rosa Parks was chosen to be the public face of the movement because she didn't have any negatives that anyone could pin on her.

It was also why Jackie Robinson was chosen by Brooklyn Dodgers owner Branch Rickey to be the first African-American player to play in the major leagues. Jackie Robinson was seen as a clean-cut fellow who wouldn't embarass Rickey.

Again, to reiterate, just so that no one misunderstands me, I understand that legalizing same sex marriage does not mean that every same sex marriage is going to be perfect. But I believe that the couples in the vanguard of fighting for the right to marry should be dead certain that they are committed to each other for the long haul and recognize that they are setting an example for others to follow.