Well, who saw that coming?
In a shock 52-48 vote, the United Kingdom has declared its intent to quit the European Union. The value of the pound is plummeting, world stock markets are cratering, and Prime Minister David Cameron, who allowed the referendum as a concession to right-wingers in his party, is quitting in humiliation.
I admit, when I first heard about the referendum, I was sympathetic. It’s easy to see why people are frustrated.
The EU was formed with noble intentions: to end war on a continent that’s often been torn by it, to allow for the free flow of people and goods across national borders, to create a united Europe that would be a powerful beacon for peace and democracy in the world.
But in practice, it’s been a disaster. With one bad decision after another, the EU’s leadership has solidified an impression of themselves as arrogant elitists and unaccountable bureaucrats who are determined to force ever-closer union on Europe regardless of what the people want. The endless bickering between advocates of integration and separation has kept the EU chronically dysfunctional and lurching from crisis to crisis almost since it was created.
The euro, in particular, has been a catastrophe. The mismatch between rich industrial powerhouses like Germany and sclerotic debtor states like Greece has meant that the weaker economies are consigned to perpetual depression and staggering economic misery. It’s like a car whose front and back wheels are trying to go at different speeds. (Ironically, with their privilege of keeping the pound, the UK already had the best of both worlds.)
However, the longer the campaign went on, the less sympathetic I felt. It became more and more obvious that these valid critiques were tangled up with ugly racism and xenophobia over immigration. The biggest supporters of Brexit were motivated by the same poisonous mindset of white resentment that Donald Trump is tapping into, the same rage against a changing world. The brutal murder of the liberal MP Jo Cox was a case in point. The EU proved to be a convenient villain to focus this directionless anger and anxiety onto.
It seems David Cameron will have an ignominious place in history as the politician who shattered both the European Union and the United Kingdom. Scotland, which does want to be in the EU, is renewing its threat to secede, and politicians are calling for the reunification of Northern Ireland with the Republic of Ireland. England could wind up a much smaller and poorer country as a result.
What happens now depends on what the EU does. This could be an amicable divorce, allowing the UK to go off on its own while retaining trade access and good diplomatic relations. It could be the moment when the EU realizes it’s losing its democratic legitimacy and volunteers to undergo reform. Or they might try to punish the UK with tariffs and trade obstruction, to send a warning to other disgruntled member states. Given their consistent history of doing exactly the wrong thing, I wish I could say I was optimistic.
If you’re a citizen of the UK, how did you vote? Where do you see the UK and the EU going from here?
Image credit: Xavier Hรคpe, released under CC BY 2.0 license
